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☆ Why many Americans still feel bad about the economy despite strong data
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Jeff Huang | In Jefftchuang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

These are the kinds of questions used by the University of Michigan to calculate the Consumer Sentiment Index, an economic indicator measuring how people feel about the economy. That survey and others show there is a pervasive sense of disconnect between the overall economic picture and how people feel about the economy. Despite slowing inflation, a healthy labor market with record-low unemployment, and stocks that remain in a bull market, consumer sentiment remains below pre-pandemic levels. "People don't tend to think in terms of inflation—economists do," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. Normal people think in terms of price levels."

Persons: Joanne Hsu, Paul Donovan Organizations: University of Michigan, Consumers, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: U.S

☆ Europe is beating inflation. Why can’t America declare victory?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed aims to keep inflation at 2% over the longer run. Meanwhile, among the 20 countries that use the euro, annual consumer price inflation has slowed steadily since the start of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”So why does the United States appear to have a bigger inflation problem than Europe? Some economists argue there isn’t actually much daylight between the US and European rates of inflation, pointing to a quirk in the US measures. The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Paul Donovan, Simon MacAdam, ”, MacAdam, ” Carsten Brzeski, Janet Yellen, Jim Watson, Brzeski, “, ” Davide Oneglia Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PCE, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics, ING, CNN, Monetary Fund, Washington, Reuters, Getty, —, ECB, Lombard Locations: United States, Europe, Centreville , Maryland, AFP, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Japan and the UK are in recessions. Is the US next?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —And just like that, two of the world’s largest economies are in technical recessions. On Thursday, Japan and the UK both reported their second consecutive negative quarters of gross domestic product, fitting the widely agreed-upon definition of a recession. In 2022, the nation’s population declined by 800,000, marking the 14th consecutive year of contraction. In the UK, however, population and wage growth weren’t sufficient to stave off a drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of that economy. In the past two quarters, the nation’s economy experienced much higher than expected GDP growth, due in large part to robust consumer spending.

Persons: Paul Donovan, ” Donovan, Kazuhiro Nogi, ”, didn’t, Jerome Powell, “, it’s, there’s, Powell, Philipp Carlsson, doesn’t, “ it’s, Carlsson Organizations: New, New York CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management, Getty, National Bureau of Economic Research, don’t, US Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting Locations: New York, Japan, Germany, AFP, Ukraine

☆ Opinion | Inflation Worries and Snickers Bars
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

To the Editor:Re “The Economic Indicator We Need? A Candy Bar,” by Paul Donovan (Opinion guest essay, Jan. 21):Contrary to Mr. Donovan’s claims, I’m not uninformed about inflation. I know the latest year-over-year inflation rate, as well as the latest month-to-month inflation rate. Given these realities, I have every right to be upset with our disingenuous political and corporate leaders who claim that inflation isn’t a concern. And I have every right to be upset with the numerous opinion pieces, including Mr. Donovan’s, that attempt to explain away the ignorance of my good fortune.

Persons: Paul Donovan, Jan, Donovan’s, I’m Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Trump, Biden

The United States has seen a steady decline in the rate of inflation, and yet many American voters are still upset over the cost of daily life. To understand this perception gap, Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, argues, we should consider the cost of a Snickers Bar. In this audio essay, he explains that frequent smaller purchases — like candy bars — shape our experience of the economy. (A full transcript of this audio essay will be available midday on the Times website.)

Persons: Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Times Locations: States

☆ The Snickers Bar Is the Economic Indicator We Need - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Paul Donovan | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The United States has just experienced one of the biggest collapses in consumer inflation in modern history. More than 12 Snickers bars are sold every second in the United States. That makes Snickers bars a very important part of consumer purchases, and so the price of a Snickers bar should be included in the inflation calculation. Yet Snickers bars do not consume a big portion of most families’ annual budget (at least they usually don’t). With $1,500 a consumer could buy a high-end 55-inch television, or almost four Snickers bars a day for a year.

Locations: States, United States

☆ Inflation is down sharply, but getting to exactly 2% will be tough
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, measured 2.6% annually in November. So, getting that number down to the Fed’s 2% target should happen in no time, right? That’s because much of the run-up in inflation came from pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions and unusual spikes in demand. The reason is that as inflation cools more, the remaining components that work to keep inflation above the Fed’s target are increasingly “sticky,” meaning they’re the least responsive to changes in market conditions. And it’s so far, so good.”That said, though it’s not the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge, Thursday’s CPI report showed that the road to 2% could come with more bumps.

Persons: ”, John Cochrane, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, That’s, Powell, Cochrane, “, ” Paul Donovan, ” Powell, I’d, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Hoover Institute, “, University of Chicago, CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: New York, EY

☆ The Fed has overtightened, says UBS Global Wealth Management's Paul Donovan
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed has overtightened, says UBS Global Wealth Management's Paul DonovanPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the latest CPI report, the outlook for rate hikes, and more.

Persons: UBS Global Wealth Management's Paul Donovan Paul Donovan, Steve Liesman Organizations: UBS Global Wealth, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ Owners equivalent rent is distorting inflation data, says UBS's Paul Donovan
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOwners equivalent rent is distorting inflation data, says UBS's Paul DonovanPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management , joins 'The Exchange' to discuss variable rate mortgages pushing up the CPI, the effort to exclude asset prices in the CPI, and the direction of inflation trending downwards.

Persons: UBS's Paul Donovan Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, CPI

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with UBS's Paul Donovan
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with UBS's Paul DonovanPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management , joins 'The Exchange' to discuss variable rate mortgages pushing up the CPI, the effort to exclude asset prices in the CPI, and the direction of inflation trending downwards.

Persons: UBS's Paul Donovan Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, CPI

☆ Falling markets sank global wealth in 2022, leaving the world with 3.5 million fewer millionaires
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Here’s the deal: The grand total of all the private wealth in the world fell 2.4% to $454.4 trillion, according to the annual Credit Suisse and UBS global wealth report. Meanwhile, global median wealth, a more meaningful indicator of how the typical person is faring, actually rose 3% in 2022. The top 1% of households still hold a staggering 44.5% of all global wealth. “The global economy is experiencing a period of astonishing economic alteration,” wrote Paul Donovan Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, in the report. Another silver lining: According to Credit Suisse projections, global wealth will rise 38% over the next five years, reaching $629 trillion by 2027.

Persons: CNN Business ’, Joe, ”, Paul Donovan, you’ll Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Credit Suisse, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Suisse Locations: New York, United States, China

☆ China’s Exports Fall Again, Imperiling Its Economic Recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( J. Edward Moreno | More About J. Edward Moreno | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In the first seven months of the year, exports to the United States declined 18.6 percent compared with the same period last year, while shipments to the European Union fell 5 percent. Exports to Russia, which has been hit with Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, increased more than 70 percent. “There has been general weakness in demand for China’s exports,” he said. A real estate crisis and weak spending by consumers have put pressure on Beijing to increase exports to help stabilize the economy. But the trade numbers released on Tuesday suggest weak demand may exacerbate a global slowdown.

Persons: Paul Donovan, ” Organizations: European Union, UBS, Officials, China Locations: United States, Russia, Ukraine, Mexico, Canada, China, Beijing

☆ Bank of England rate hike: Less was definitely more, UBS economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of England rate hike: Less was definitely more, UBS economist saysPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses Bank of England's latest interest rate hike and the outlook for its monetary policy.

Persons: Paul Donovan Organizations: Email Bank of, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, England's

☆ Here are 3 ways the Fed messed up since 2021 and how it's impacting the economy, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve has made three big mistakes since inflation took off in 2021, according to UBS. "Today's rate hike will probably have to be reversed in a relatively short space of time," UBS said. Today's additional rate hike from the Fed gets to the root of what has went wrong. These are the three big mistakes made by the Fed over the past two years, and how it will impact the economy, according to UBS. "A sensible recognition of the declining quality of economic data would have stopped the blind hike, hike, hike strategy."

Persons: Paul Donovan, Donovan, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management's, Fed Locations: Ukraine

☆ Further rate hikes aren't the right approach from central banks, UBS' Paul Donovan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFurther rate hikes aren't the right approach from central banks, UBS' Paul Donovan saysPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, says further interest rate hikes from central banks may not be the right approach as the economy is slowing and disinflation forces are working,

Persons: Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management

The cost of certain goods is retreating in some places, but that doesn't include live music. Concert tickets have surged in price, to the point where economists are noticing. While ticket prices have increased, he said, mid-year figures haven't shown an appreciable rise since May 2022, when U.S. inflation was 8.6%. In India, fans are happy to pay a premium for quality entertainment, according to Owen Roncon, chief of business for Live Entertainment at BookMyShow. In Britain, about 150,000 music fans paid 340 pounds ($431)for a ticket to June's Glastonbury festival to see Elton John and hundreds of other acts.

Persons: Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, haven't, Mario Ihieme, Paul Donovan, Harry Styles, Joel Barrios, Carolina Candelas, Andy Gensler, Pollstar, TD Cowen, Stephen Glagola, Elton John, Jason Cairnduff, Bruno Mars, Coldplay, Fairuz Zahari, Ed Sheeran, Owen Roncon, Eventbrite, Michael Rapino, Beth Cook, Dawn Chmielewski, Danielle Broadway, Sachin Ravikumar, David Milliken, Sharon Kimathi, Rozanna, Radhika Anilkumar, David Gaffen, Catherine Evans Organizations: LOS ANGELES, National Statistics, UBS Global Wealth Management, Stubhub, Ticketmaster, REUTERS, U.S . Labor Department, Backstreet, Live Entertainment, Backstreet Boys, Entertainment, Thomson Locations: Asia, U.S, GLASTONBURY, England, London, Seattle, Mexico City, Los Angeles, Europe, Barcelona, Glastonbury, Somerset, Britain, Malaysia, Australia, India, Leeds, Kuala Lumpur, Bangalore

The cost of certain goods is retreating in some places, but that doesn't include live music. Concert tickets have surged in price, to the point where economists are noticing. Event prices in UK inflation data are based on when shows take place, not when tickets are bought. While ticket prices have increased, he said, mid-year figures haven't shown an appreciable rise since May 2022, when U.S. inflation was 8.6%. The U.S. Labor Department does not specifically measure inflation for concert prices, but the inflation rate for live performing admission events is currently 2.6 percentage points more than U.S. headline inflation.

Persons: Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, haven't, Mario Ihieme, Paul Donovan, Harry Styles, Joel Barrios, Carolina Candelas, Andy Gensler, Pollstar, TD Cowen, Stephen Glagola, Bruno Mars, Coldplay, Fairuz Zahari, Ed Sheeran, Owen Roncon, Eventbrite, Michael Rapino, Elton John, Beth Cook, Dawn Chmielewski, Danielle Broadway, Sachin Ravikumar, David Milliken, Sharon Kimathi, Rozanna, Radhika Anilkumar, David Gaffen, Catherine Evans Organizations: LOS ANGELES, National Statistics, UBS Global Wealth Management, Stubhub, Ticketmaster, U.S . Labor Department, Backstreet, Live Entertainment, Backstreet Boys, Entertainment, Thomson Locations: Asia, U.S, GLASTONBURY, England, London, Seattle, Mexico City, Los Angeles, Europe, Barcelona, Malaysia, Australia, India, Britain, Leeds, Glastonbury, Kuala Lumpur, Bangalore

☆ Markets pricing out rate cuts for this year is the right move, says RegentAtlantic's Andy Kapyrin
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets pricing out rate cuts for this year is the right move, says RegentAtlantic's Andy KapyrinPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, and AAndy Kapyrin, CI RegentAtlantic Private Wealth co-CIO, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's next policy move, signs of moderating inflation, and companies pushing off costs on to consumers.

Persons: Andy Kapyrin Paul Donovan, AAndy Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Wealth

☆ ECB rate hikes to create divisions in European economy, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB rate hikes to create divisions in European economy, UBS saysPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses new German industrial data, the path ahead for European monetary policy, and the U.S. economy.

☆ Why Prices, Inflation Are Still Soaring: Corporate Price Gouging
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

While many of the problems that helped trigger the upward spiral have abated, prices are still high and getting higher. The idea that companies are taking advantage of disruptions to push price increases on consumers has many names — greedflation, excuseflation, price gouging, corporate profiteering — but the gist is the same. Supply-chain issues and other disruptions made sense as drivers of higher prices, Chris Becker, a senior economist and the associate director of policy and research at the Groundwork Collaborative, told me. "Working people are suffering thanks to corporate greed, so we need to enact tougher rules to ensure corporations pay a price when they price gouge." Working people are suffering thanks to corporate greed, so we need to enact tougher rules to ensure corporations pay a price when they price gouge.

☆ Explainer: Oil price surge changes ECB narrative only at the margins
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The following examines how higher crude prices - which jumped around 5.5% on Monday following the OPEC+ decision - could impact ECB policy. IS AN OIL PRICE SURGE INFLATIONARY? Part of the issue is that high energy prices slow growth further out and thus become deflationary because they reduce households' and businesses' purchasing power. "The case for more ECB rate hikes is still intact," UniCredit said in a note. If high energy prices spook the Fed, rate-cut bets will unwind and push up the dollar.

☆ Premarket stocks: How big of a problem is greedflation?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

“Executives at SVB and Signature [Bank] took wild risks and must be held accountable for exploding their banks,” Warren said. Republican Senators say the Fed’s focus on climate change led to banking turmoilRepublican Senators repeatedly insinuated on Tuesday that the recent US banking turmoil came as a result of the Federal Reserve’s focus on climate change. In his opening statement, Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the ranking member of the banking committee, called the Fed’s focus on climate change a waste of time. It’s what our supervisors do all the time.”In an interview with Montana Public Radio in 2014, Daines said that “the jury’s still out” on whether climate change is real. The public reasonably expects supervisors to require that banks understand, and appropriately manage, their material risks, including the financial risks of climate change.”

☆ 'The first bank crisis of the Twitter generation': The pressure on banks is very different from 2008
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

It is "unlikely" that European banks will undergo anything as serious as in 2008, according to economists. But a banking crisis today would look very different from 15 years ago thanks to social media, online banking, and huge shifts in regulation. This is "the first bank crisis of the Twitter generation," Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, told CNBC earlier this month, in reference to the collapse of Credit Suisse . watch nowRegulators shuttered Silicon Valley Bank on March 10 in what was the biggest U.S. bank collapse since the global financial crisis in 2008. Risk in the banking system today is significantly less than it has been at any time over the last 20 or 30 years.

☆ This is the first banking crisis of the Twitter era, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is the first banking crisis of the Twitter era, economist saysPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses how the banking sector has changed since the global financial crisis, including the impact of social media.

☆ ECB confronts a cold reality: companies are cashing in on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

"It's clear that profit expansion has played a larger role in the European inflation story in the last six months or so," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. "The ECB has failed to justify what it's doing in the context of a more profit-focused inflation story." Instead, national accounts and earnings reports from listed companies are being used as proxies to paint the inflation picture. "The main story of the risks going forward is still that there's a looming wage-price spiral which should make the central bank even more aggressive in hiking interest rates." loadingloadingEven inside the ECB, labour representatives demanding higher pay for central bank staff have distanced themselves from what they described as the institution's "anti-worker bias".

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